Above: a rack of Italian wine in a retail shop in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

First the good news:

The new across-the-board 20 percent tariffs aimed at the E.U. are lower than once expected and nowhere near the 200 percent the U.S. had initially threatened. As one high-profile Italian wine grower said yesterday evening in an interview with a national daily, “it could have been worse.”

More good news:

The new tariffs allow exceptions for products “on the water,” in other words, on a U.S.-bound container ship. Importers of E.U. products have up until midnight the evening before the deadlines to get their products out of the block. Many importers were fearful that they would be slapped with the tax for products already en route.

Not great news:

The big story in the Italian papers this morning isn’t about wine (although last night, the initial freakout focus was wine). It’s about Parmigiano Reggiano exports to the U.S. which were already being taxed at 15 percent. Parmigiano Reggiano producers are now facing a 35 percent tariff on their wheels. I guess we better get used to grating “Parmesan” from Wisconsin.

The hard truth:

Italy exports more wine, worth roughly $2 billion, to the U.S. than any other E.U. country.

The opening paragraph of the lead story in the Times, “A Stunned World Reckons with Economic Fallout from Trump’s Tariffs,” really put it into perspective:

“Laptop computers from Taiwan, wine from Italy, frozen shrimp from India, Nike sneakers from Vietnam, and Irish butter. These products are found in homes across the United States.”

The above quote gives you a sense of how much Italian wine relies on the U.S. market for sales. By most accounts, roughly a quarter of all Italian wine production heads to our shores. Of all the major E.U. producers of wine, Italy is without question the most vulnerable and exposed in the trade war.

Vinitaly, our industry’s annual four-day trade fair, begins on Sunday. I’m heading to Italy tonight to attend. And I’ll be reporting on my conversations with Italian wine producers and U.S. wine importers. There’s going to be a lot of pain, a lot of sacrifice. But we will get through this. #ItalianWineStrong!

Giving a warm shout-out this morning to Vintage Wine Bar in Tulsa and the 30 wine professionals who came out to taste with Emma Baudry from the Union des Vins Doux de Bordeaux (part of the Charming Taste of Europe Campaign).

Tulsa and its wine community have enchanted me since I first came to Oklahoma for wine in 2020 (just two weeks before the closures began). Before Houston took that title in the 1970s, the city was the world’s oil capital. The pre-Reagan era brought wealth and people to this midwest outpost, once a major hub along Route 66.

Today, Tulsa’s restaurant scene is hopping and the wine culture is cosmopolitan. It reminds me of Austin when I first moved there in 2008 to be with Tracie. Like the Texans back then, people here know great wine and they are thirsty to expand the city’s wine cred.

Thank you to the wonderful staff at Vintage Wine Bar (man, the 2015 Turley Zinfandel Mead Ranch was outstanding!). And thank you to all the great folks in Tulsa who came out for the event. It was wonderful to see every seat taken! Thank you!

And, wow, as we tasted through sweet wines from Bordeaux, for a fleeting moment, I could forget about the looming news that tomorrow will bring for our industry.

Today, on the eve of Vinitaly, the Italian wine world’s main event in Verona, we are all holding our collective breath waiting for an update.

Importers with “wine on the water” are praying that their wines will be exempt from the taxes. For some, it could be ruinous if they are not excluded from the tariffs.

All are quietly hoping that their home or focus countries might be spared.

The entire supply chain is bracing for rough waters ahead, regardless of the final figure.

The one thing we all know for certain is that the uncertainty has been unbearable for our industry.

Tomorrow will tell. And as the saying goes, “tonight, there’s nothing left to do but dance.”