Anecdotally, I’m hearing that many E.U. producers are choosing to skip major wine events in the U.S. this year.

A medium-sized importer in the U.S. recently sent me the following note:

The next big threat is the weakening of the dollar vs. the Euro by 13% since January. If it keeps going this way for another six months at the speed it has been devaluing, then it won’t be the tariffs that put us out of business but the weak dollar. When I started importing in 2009 it was $1.53 to €1 and it has been $1.10 or lower for many years now. If it goes back up to even $1.35, I am going to have to significantly raise all of my prices and sales will slowly be strangled.

When you consider that the wine industry was already facing menacing headwinds before the tariffs and the sinking dollar, it becomes clear that the current crisis is existential for many operators. With no end to the tariffs in sight and growing economic uncertainty, the U.S. wine community is going to look starkly different by the end of this year.

In related news, the U.S. Wine Trade Alliance is soliciting comments on how tariffs and the value of the dollar are affecting small businesses:

We need your immediate feedback on how the current trade environment is affecting your business. As the 10% tariff on imported wines continues, and with the real possibility of escalations to 20% or more in the coming months, your voice is critical in helping us convey the stakes to policymakers.

Please take a moment to respond to the following questions:

How is the current 10% tariff impacting your business?
(Consider effects on hiring, investment, expansion plans, sales volumes, pricing, customer relationships, etc.)

If the 10% tariff remains in place long term, what will the ongoing impact be on your operations?
(Feel free to include the currency devaluation.)

In 2.5 months, if EU–U.S. trade negotiations go poorly and tariffs rise to 20% or more, how would your business be affected?
(We’re especially interested in how this would impact your viability, supplier relationships, and workforce.)

Responses can be e-mailed to ESarnor@akingump.com. You may copy me as well. We are compiling member input to share with trade officials and congressional staff in the coming days. If you are able, a response on company letter head would be helpful.

Please send responses by Monday, April 28th. Your feedback is essential to making the case that these tariffs are doing more harm than good to American businesses like yours.